The Green Bay Packers‘ running back room has just two holdovers from last season: AJ Dillon and Emanuel Wilson. Aaron Jones, the franchise’s third all-time leading rusher, was released after he refused to take yet another pay cut to stay in Green Bay.
The decision to release him came just hours after the Packers signed 2022 NFL rushing leader Josh Jacobs to a four-year contract. Green Bay also drafted USC’s Marshawn Lloyd in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Going into training camp, the only two running backs with guaranteed jobs in 2024 are Jacobs and Lloyd. Jacobs because of his free agent contract and Lloyd because he is a third-round draft pick.
Dillon is coming off of a down season in 2023 and re-signed on an incredibly team friendly contract. Wilson was an undrafted free agent last year and made the 53-man roster.
Why Do Some Fans Think AJ Dillon Will Not Make the Green Bay Packers’ 53-Man Roster?
As mentioned Dillon is coming off a down year in 2023. Last season, he averaged a career-low 3.4 yards per carry while rushing for 613 yards. While those numbers may not appear terrible for a backup running back, it is worth noting that Dillon’s numbers have decline in each season following 2021.
The 2021 NFL season, of course, was the year that he took over as the second-string running back behind Jones. That is also the year that saw both Packers top two running backs each go over 1,000 all-purpose yards. For his part, Dillon had 1,116 all-purpose yards (808 of the rushing) while averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
In 2022, Dillon’s production dipped a bit, but he was still rather productive. He had 976 all-purpose yards (770 of them rushing) while averaging 4.1 yards per carry.
When comparing his 2021 and 2022 seasons to his production last year, it is easy to see why many may believe that he is in danger of losing his job in training camp. However, one Packers insider does not think that will be the case.
AJ Dillon Is a Valuable Member of the Green Bay Packers
While rushing the ball is the primary job of a running back, they have to do so much more on the field. Blocking, for instance, is a big part of their job on certain passing plays.
According to PFF, Dillon had a better pass blocking grade than Jacobs last year (56.0 compared to 50.9).
Catching the ball is also a big part of a running back’s job. Last season, Dillon had a receiving grade of 68.2. Jacobs had a 51.0.
As one can see, there are some things that Dillon just does better than the other two running backs who are trying to take the backup role from him.
Packers insider Mike Spofford seems to think that these things are going to be what helps Dillon make the 53-man roster this upcoming season:
“If Dillon doesn’t make the team, it won’t be for cap reasons. He’s got a league minimum cap charge for a fifth-year player. Could MarShawn Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson both leapfrog him? Maybe. But I suspect Dillon’s experience in this offense, particularly as a pass protector and in hurry-up situations, will prove valuable.”
These things, particularly pass protection and hurry-up situations, were the reasons why Wilson did not get more playing time last season, per Matt LaFleur. It is fair to assume, then, that Dillon at the very least has a leg up on him when it comes to making the 53-man roster.
It is possible that Lloyd could take the second running back role, but he will need to learn very quickly in order to do so. Dillon himself was the Packers’ third string running back when he was a rookie in 2020.
Of course, Dillon’s future in Green Bay beyond this year is far from certain. However, he is not as in danger of losing his job as some people are making him out to be.
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